Vancouver Sunrise Bulletin 23/05/2012
Rotary Club of Vancouver Sunrise
President Matthew gonged the meeting to order and Rogelio recited the Four Way test for us. There were 12 members present with visiting Rotarian Rogelio Silva from the Burnaby Club.
Rotary Moment
No Rotary moment this week as John is breakfasting on Grizzly Bear liver.
Announcements
Robert: Please get those pledge emails out, folks.
Bill: If you have not signed up for Horse Racing at Hastings Park on August 18th (date chosen by acclamation), contact Bill and get in on the action.
Hockey pool: Due to Cam’s absence there was no hard news but Bill and Jim are still in.
Member News
Sheila enjoyed the District Conference especially the presentation of motivational speaker, Joe Roberts. Diana enjoyed the District Conference especially the dinner cruise and her team came 2nd in their field hockey tournament. Bill reported that Kelsey won a gold medal in baseball. Rogelio is happy to feel part of our club. Larry and Tania had a wonderful hot, sunny time in Robert’s Creek. Lawrence’s wife is retiring from teaching. Robert mourned the loss of his good friend Brent Cameron.
Speaker: Russell Taylor
Lawrence introduced Russell who started his career as a forester and then worked in mills. He runs his own company, International Wood Markets Group Inc., helping industry with business and market plans. The Company does projects in Russia and has an office in China. They have a stellar roster of clients.
The bad news is that we have gone through the worst industry cycle since the Depression. Good news is that those who have survived will do really well. The Interior is really affected by the Mountain Pine beetle. The prediction is that the BC wood industry is on a big upturn because the Chinese like Hemlock which we have more of than any other species. Our growth with China is dramatic. Russia put in an export tax and this helped BC. Although the US market has collapsed due to the housing situation, China is taking increasing amounts of wood for concrete forming; the wood is used 3 or 4 times and then burnt.
The Mountain Pine beetle is endemic and thriving because we have not had a cold winter since 1997. The beetle will kill 60% of BC’s pine. There is no viable remediation; pesticide only works tree by tree. In order to kill the beetle we need a week of -30º in December or two weeks of -35º to -40º after December; it is a major natural disaster.
Good news is China and an eventual rebound of the US market. China is a huge global producer of wood products with big plywood and MDF industries. Canada is filling the gap left be reduced import of Russian logs and lumber due to a Russian export tax (25%). Even though Russia could (and probably will) reduce the tax to 13%, it still would take Russia a long time to bounce back. Canada is now the largest supplier of softwood lumber to China. Exports have more than quintupled in four years.
China has the lowest cost, most efficient—though technologically outmoded—mills and can outbid US and BC mills for logs. China is working on developing the largest sawmill site in the world. Their industry is fuelled by labour rates of $100/month, which will likely increase to $350. Should they reach $500 then the equation changes.
In summary Russell predicts a super-cycle coming for BC wood.
Abigail thanked Russell for his excellent presentation.
Thought for the week
Matthew closed with:
Speak softly and carry a big stick.
- Theodore Roosevelt. See more